High confidence in predictions based on coherent stories, even when predictive validity is low or zero.
A hiring manager feels confident about a candidate because their background 'tells a coherent story' of success, even though research shows interviews have low predictive validity for job performance.
Confidence reflects accuracy—confidence often reflects narrative coherence and is poorly calibrated to predictive validity, especially in low-validity environments.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman
Systematic tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and predictions, especially in low-validity environments.
Extreme performances tend to be followed by more average ones, not because of any causal intervention but due to statistical randomness.
Intuitive expertise is genuine in high-validity environments (stable patterns, rapid feedback) but illusory in low-validity environments (unstable, delayed feedback).
Systematic tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and predictions, especially in low-validity environments.
The tendency to construct coherent stories that explain past events, creating an illusion of understanding and predictability.
In Kahneman's research on Israeli military officers, why did they remain confident in their assessments of recruits despite near-zero predictive validity?
How does the illusion of validity relate to the narrative fallacy?