The tendency to rely too heavily on an initial piece of information (the anchor) when making subsequent judgments, even when the anchor is arbitrary or irrelevant.
People start from an initial value and insufficiently adjust away from it, even when the anchor is obviously random. In experiments, spinning a wheel of fortune that lands on 10 versus 65 affects estimates of African nations in the UN (25% vs 45% average estimates). The mechanism involves System 1's associative coherence: the anchor activates compatible information in memory, and System 2's adjustments are typically insufficient. Anchoring works even when people are warned about it, even when they generate the anchor themselves, and even when the anchor is absurd.
When negotiating salary, if the employer opens with $60,000, your counteroffer will likely be closer to that number than if they'd opened with $80,000. The initial number anchors the negotiation range, even if you consciously try to ignore it.
I can avoid anchoring by being aware of it—actually, anchoring persists even with awareness; the best defense is generating your own estimate before seeing any anchors.
Why does anchoring persist even when people are explicitly warned about it or know the anchor is random?
You're negotiating your salary for a new job. The employer asks what salary you're looking for. Based on anchoring research, what's your best strategy?
The slow, deliberate, effortful mode of thinking that allocates attention to complex computations, self-control, and conscious reasoning.
Mental ModelThe fast, automatic, intuitive mode of thinking that operates effortlessly and generates impressions, intuitions, and feelings without conscious control.
Mental ModelJudging the frequency or probability of events by how easily examples come to mind, leading to overestimation of vivid or recent events.
Mental ModelJudging probability by how much something resembles a typical case while ignoring base rates, sample size, and statistical principles.
Mental ModelThe principle that losses loom psychologically larger than equivalent gains, with losing something feeling roughly twice as bad as gaining the same thing feels good.
PrincipleA descriptive model of decision-making under risk showing that people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point, are loss-averse, and weight probabilities non-linearly.
FrameworkSystem 1's tendency to construct the most coherent story possible from currently available information without considering what's missing or questions not asked.
PrincipleThe systematic tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take, how much they'll cost, and what risks they face, due to focusing on the specific plan rather than similar projects.
PrincipleThe tendency to rely too heavily on an initial piece of information (the anchor) when making subsequent judgments, even when the anchor is arbitrary or irrelevant.
When negotiating salary, if the employer opens with $60,000, your counteroffer will likely be closer to that number than if they'd opened with $80,000. The initial number anchors the negotiation range, even if you consciously try to ignore it.
I can avoid anchoring by being aware of it—actually, anchoring persists even with awareness; the best defense is generating your own estimate before seeing any anchors.
Anchoring Effect is explored in depth in "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman. Distilo provides a deep AI-powered analysis with key insights, audio narration, and practical frameworks.