System 1's tendency to construct the most coherent story possible from currently available information without considering what's missing or questions not asked.
WYSIATI explains why we don't spontaneously think about what we don't know—System 1 builds a complete, coherent narrative from whatever information is present, and that narrative feels satisfying and complete. This produces overconfidence because we're not aware of the gaps in our knowledge. It explains confirmation bias (seeking information that fits our existing story), halo effects (letting one trait color our entire impression), and why we're surprised by events that, in hindsight, we 'should have seen coming.' The quality of judgment depends less on the information we have than on our awareness of what we don't have.
When evaluating a job candidate based on a 30-minute interview, you construct a complete impression of their abilities and personality. You feel confident in this assessment, not recognizing that you're missing information about how they handle stress, work with difficult colleagues, or perform over extended periods.
If my story feels complete and coherent, I must have all the relevant information—actually, coherence is not the same as accuracy; System 1 constructs coherent stories even from incomplete data.
After a 30-minute job interview, you feel highly confident about a candidate's abilities and cultural fit. How does WYSIATI explain this confidence, and what's the problem with it?
How does WYSIATI produce overconfidence in our judgments?
The slow, deliberate, effortful mode of thinking that allocates attention to complex computations, self-control, and conscious reasoning.
Mental ModelThe fast, automatic, intuitive mode of thinking that operates effortlessly and generates impressions, intuitions, and feelings without conscious control.
Mental ModelJudging the frequency or probability of events by how easily examples come to mind, leading to overestimation of vivid or recent events.
Mental ModelJudging probability by how much something resembles a typical case while ignoring base rates, sample size, and statistical principles.
Mental ModelThe tendency to rely too heavily on an initial piece of information (the anchor) when making subsequent judgments, even when the anchor is arbitrary or irrelevant.
Mental ModelThe principle that losses loom psychologically larger than equivalent gains, with losing something feeling roughly twice as bad as gaining the same thing feels good.
PrincipleA descriptive model of decision-making under risk showing that people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point, are loss-averse, and weight probabilities non-linearly.
FrameworkThe systematic tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take, how much they'll cost, and what risks they face, due to focusing on the specific plan rather than similar projects.
PrincipleSystem 1's tendency to construct the most coherent story possible from currently available information without considering what's missing or questions not asked.
When evaluating a job candidate based on a 30-minute interview, you construct a complete impression of their abilities and personality. You feel confident in this assessment, not recognizing that you're missing information about how they handle stress, work with difficult colleagues, or perform over extended periods.
If my story feels complete and coherent, I must have all the relevant information—actually, coherence is not the same as accuracy; System 1 constructs coherent stories even from incomplete data.
WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is) is explored in depth in "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman. Distilo provides a deep AI-powered analysis with key insights, audio narration, and practical frameworks.